Thursday, October 5th, 2006

The State Of Web Development – Ajax set to surpass Flash in ’07

Category: Ajax, Editorial

Richard MacManus has posted on The State Of Web Development – Ajax set to surpass Flash in ’07.

This is in reference to a report on the subject (free preview).

The current stats are good, but take a look at the future. Ajax is here to stay.

Future web projects graph

What will be the next big thing on the Web?

  • Real-time visual 3D view and navigation of a site
  • more standards compliance, responsible use of technologies and semantics
  • portable information progress
  • Paradigm shift: you will not search the Web for information. You will define what you want, and the Web will collect it for you.
  • Voice interactivity/navigation
  • “…total immersion. Cell phones, PDAs, laptops, PCs, TVs – so many different ways exist to access the Web and more are added every day. The Web is going to become –if it hasn’t already – the hub on which the world spins.”
  • “Integration of Internet technologies into everyday life that does not involve a desktop or even a mobile/cell/PDA”

Posted by Dion Almaer at 8:45 am
15 Comments

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4 rating from 23 votes

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Flash still has some optimized features that run rather slowly with AJAX. I like the Flex/AJAX hybrid solution as well. In fact I am exploring that option for a project I am currently working on.

Comment by Douglas — October 5, 2006

Sorry but I am trying to understand the logic of this chart.

Are blogs, wikis, syndicates and microformats considered ‘technologies’ or ‘applications’?

Any of these can be used with Flash or Ajax. So how can this be compared?

Maybe I am wrong :), but I am still trying to understand it.

Comment by Sajid — October 5, 2006

I think youtube and google/yahoo finance, etc. have shown that rich clients (and flash in particular) are not going away. I think to most people its not flash or ajax, but flash and ajax.

Comment by Gabe H — October 5, 2006

Oh damn, one more “apple vs oranges”. Flex, Flash and Ajax happily live and evolve together. Choose what works for you and fits your needs.

Comment by Michael Klishin — October 5, 2006

Interesting stats even given the apples v oranges nature, but it would be nice to have some background – how many repondents, where, when — I’d like to use this to promote AJAX, and the teaching thereof, at University, but if I show this graph with no background I’ll be laughed out of the meeting…

Comment by J Hendler — October 5, 2006

Doesnt seem like the list was well thought out. Some of the bulleted items could have been removed or condensed to one bulleted item….. kinda lame.

Comment by Mario — October 5, 2006

This should be labeled “Things you want to explore in 2007” it is a collection of ideas, tech and buzzwords and does little to clarify things. It also includes both old and new but seems to omit other older techs and trends that will likely continue and grow.

It really adds more confusion than it solves. For example, we see blogs but isn’t a blog just a CMS with a specific format goal from a tech perspective? Or do we mean using blogs in the corporate space to promote or share knowledge? Or do we mean blogs in the sense of promoting self publishing with the same to be said with Wikis. In the case of JS libraries one wonders that if Ajax is just an application of JS, would it also indicate library usage? You could go on and on….

Comment by Matt Lowell — October 5, 2006

This is an extract from a survey sitepoint.com conducted in June.
There were over 5000 respondants, and the results were made available to partipants (and may be available to the public now — I’m not sure).

Those bullet point items are a sample of answers to the question “where do you think the web is heading…”
The graphed responses here also allowed participants to select multiple answers. I.e they didn’t have to choose between Ajax and Flash, they were able to check all that applied.

Comment by Mike Healy — October 5, 2006

[…] Ajaxian で取り上げられていたウェブ開発に関するリサーチ、The State of Web Development 2006/2007。Ektron と SitePoint の共同リサーチ。執筆者の方々はこの面々。 […]

Pingback by thebadtiming.com » AJAX が Flash を超える日 — October 5, 2006

I agree that the graph above is misleading because it shows % change rather than absolute numbers.
The Sitepoint report doesnt give absolute change values either, but it gives enough information to work it out; the report shows current tech usage as well as the graph above, so we know the %usage of each tech now, and the %designers who expect to learn new techs for 2007. If we assume that users who know a tech now did not say they expected to learn the same tech for 2007 (a very reasonable assumption :D) then the absolute percentage change of users that will learn each new tech for 2007 is (100% – percentage of users who already use it)* percentage of users who will learn it for 2007)/100. the absolute number of users who will be using each technology for 2007 is then absolute percentage change+number of users already using. Ive worked these figures out, and the number of predicted users who will be using Ajax for 2007 is 56.3% of all designers. The percentage of all designers who will be using Flash is 56.3%. Still more using Ajax, but the difference in numbers is much less than implied by the article, because they are showing the wrong graph (delta instead of absolute numbers)! I’ll put a version of the graph showing predicted absolute numbers on my blog later today, asuming the missus doesnt make me go out drinking later ;)

Comment by Sham Bhangal — October 6, 2006

Sorry. small but crucial typo in post above!
The predicted number of users using Ajax for 2007 is (drumroll…) 62.04% of all designers, vs 56.3% of all designers for Flash.

Comment by Sham Bhangal — October 6, 2006

A good analysis some of the trends i found:
http://www.coachwei.com/blog/_archives/2006/10/7/2395524.html

Comment by richard Bayer — October 7, 2006

If I have to choose between Ajax and Flash, I would definetely choose Ajax !

Comment by kanenas.net — October 8, 2006

Square pegs, round holes. I’m happy to compare apples and oranges all day long. But an apple is NOT an orange. This is survey is the biggest troll ever!

Comment by Tim — October 9, 2006

The State Of Web Development – Ajax set to surpass Flash in ‘07

Richard MacManus has posted on The State Of Web Development – Ajax set to surpass Flash in ‘07. This is in reference to a report on the subject.

Trackback by Anonymous — October 9, 2006

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